Why Futurists Can’t Predict the Future, and How You Can

Presented by: Pat Wagner

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Program Number: SP 116

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Professional forecasters often fail (have you ever tracked their rate of success?) because they fall in love with one formula, or they are paid to promote a specific outcome. Ironically, average people can be more successful because they might approach the same information with a more open mind. Critical thinking provides you with fourteen ways to improve accuracy when looking in your crystal ball.


  • Introduction: Why We Need To Care About The Future
  • The Key Idea: Approach All Assumptions With Friendly Skepticism
  • How Innovators Think About The Future
  • Fourteen Common Futurist Mistakes
  • Five Typical Blind Spots
  • Testing Your Theories In The Real World
  • How To Refresh Your World View


  • Become more accurate at predicting trends.
  • Engage more diverse people as advisors and consultants.
  • Read and research ideas off the beaten track.

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